Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 216.642550 267.678623 332.687301 423.521860 550.458026 7.269088e+02 1.001106e+03
2025-02-02 165.952675 226.052381 314.019685 459.262106 709.074829 1.158085e+03 2.138064e+03
2025-02-09 137.090942 199.298269 299.518743 486.725039 867.252722 1.728659e+03 4.417874e+03
2025-02-16 117.356734 179.010844 285.825327 505.980398 1022.134747 2.474818e+03 9.249123e+03
2025-02-23 102.547064 162.413102 272.319721 518.168485 1171.968575 3.445196e+03 2.047294e+04
2025-03-02 88.862387 144.536638 251.099590 504.420397 1247.778232 4.342258e+03 4.259412e+04
2025-03-09 78.155403 129.933258 232.535800 489.441328 1312.291255 5.384947e+03 9.828690e+04
2025-03-16 69.066064 116.790482 213.969586 467.636820 1341.384479 6.388391e+03 2.437860e+05
2025-03-23 66.823633 116.463956 222.616773 521.868999 1708.552762 1.127018e+04 1.026097e+07
2025-03-30 61.978322 110.078549 216.178067 530.667420 1904.523525 1.626695e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 58.628895 106.258599 214.909775 555.396759 2219.878820 2.678175e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 53.991841 99.040093 203.896567 543.893572 2329.667720 3.616280e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 52.955005 99.728206 213.560385 612.309339 3098.453472 1.009025e+05 NaN
2025-04-27 51.284221 98.761378 218.820973 669.286470 3978.758225 3.533939e+05 NaN
2025-05-04 49.270520 96.689825 220.599296 714.500977 4951.366641 1.988120e+06 NaN
2025-05-11 47.038898 93.774433 219.319654 746.618483 5965.510440 4.705521e+07 NaN
2025-05-18 44.725371 90.346472 215.797244 767.084116 6988.804778 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 41.698237 84.791355 204.698462 743.995535 7273.975397 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 38.945124 79.642241 194.034806 718.969672 7486.086460 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 36.246780 74.370730 182.171269 682.784519 7386.143174 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 36.123833 75.664439 191.724576 773.316110 10856.686971 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 34.656053 73.284032 188.653030 788.169311 12673.738920 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 33.689693 72.127032 189.568132 830.158134 16211.248317 NaN NaN